Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.5)
(188)
37,664
U.S. stocks moved mostly higher during the trading day on Thursday after coming
Nifty
(0.4)
(50)
11,385
under pressure in the previous session. The major averages all moved to the upside,
Mid Cap
(0.5)
(78)
16,164
with the Dow posting a particularly strong gain on the day. The Dow Jones spiked by
Small Cap
(0.2)
(33)
16,710
1.6% to 25,559 and the Nasdaq went up by 0.4% to 7,806.
Bankex
(0.6)
(203)
31,468
U.K. shares rose yesterday as worries about Turkey eased and a government report
showed U.K. retail sales increased more than expected in July. Retail sales including
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
auto fuel, rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in July, in contrast to a 0.5 percent fall
in June. Sales were forecast to increase by 0.2 percent. The benchmark FTSE 100
Dow Jones
1.6
396
25,559
was up by 0.6% to 7,540.
Nasdaq
0.4
32
7,806
FTSE
0.6
43
7,540
On domestic front, Indian stocks fell yesterday as traders returned to their desks
after a holiday on Wednesday on account of Independence Day. Global cues were
Nikkei
(0.1)
(12)
22,192
mixed and the rupee extended recent losses to hit a record low of 70.39 against the
Hang Seng
(0.8)
(224)
27,100
dollar, keeping investors nervous. Weak trade balance data also dented
Shanghai Com
(0.7)
(18)
2,705
sentiment.The BSE Sensex declined by 0.5% to 37,664.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
News Analysis
Advances
1179
622
Exit from Matrimony.com - CMP `573
Declines
1,572
1,183
MPC minutes of RBI: Inflation fears, driven by oil prices, led to rate hike
Unchanged
134
88
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Volumes (` Cr)
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
BSE
4,782
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
NSE
34,130
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Top Picks
FII
414
1,470
-1,941
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
*MFs
15
155
72,753
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
694
867
25.0
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Accumulate
648
720
11.1
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
292
410
40.4
HDIL
31
18.3
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,007
1,080
7.2
TNPL
321
12.0
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
408
589
44.4
More Top Picks on Pg4
VAKRANGEE
46
10.0
SONATSOFTW
355
8.9
Key Upcoming Events
HCC
12
6.2
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
Aug 17, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
2.10
2.10
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Aug 22, 2018 Germany PMI Manufacturing
56.90
RCOM
19
-10.4
Aug 23, 2018 US
Existing home sales
5.38
5.45
Aug 23, 2018 Germany PMI Services
54.10
JISLJALEQS
76
-8.8
Aug 23, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
(0.60)
TATASTEELPP
132
-5.8
More Events on Pg7
SREINFRA
47
-5.4
DEEPAKFERT
250
-5.1
As on Aug 16, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
News Analysis
Exit from Matrimony.com at CMP:- Rs573
We expect revenue and operating margin of company would be impacted due to
intense competition in the Northern and in some parts of the Western markets.
Also the industry is providing deep discount on subscription packages. Considering
the subdued 1QFY19 quarterly performance, at current level (Rs573), we are
recommending investor to exit from stock.
MPC minutes of RBI: Inflation fears, driven by oil prices, led to rate hike
Risk of inflationary pressures, triggered by rising crude oil prices, drove five-
member of the monetary policy committee (MPC) in its August review to favour a
hike in policy rate for the second time in a row. The MPC members raised
concerns about the risk to the inflation target due to the impact from minimum
support price (MSP) rise for crops, elevated crude prices and other factors such as
increase in house rent allowance and monsoon conditions. Positive growth outlook
and indications of output gap closing were also key factors for the rate hike vote.
Following the rate hike of 25 basis points, which was anticipated by many in the
market, the policy repo rate stands at 6.5 per cent.
RBI governor Urjit Patel said the hike was "a necessary step towards securing the
mandated 4 per cent inflation target on a durable basis" as inflation risks have
continued to be elevated. He said CPI, excluding HRA, rose for the third
consecutive month in June 2018, driven by a broad-based increase in inflation in
non-food goods and services.
Viral Acharya, deputy governor said the upside risks are higher than downside risk
as real-time indicators indicate growth recovery to be sustainable. He said, "The
underlying inflation as reflected, especially in petrol and diesel, transportation
(including fares), education fees, health services and clothing persists, and does
not augur well for headline inflation going forward. The hike would help rein in
demand pressures and manage inflation expectations".
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Economic and Political News
NHAI borrowings jump a little over 18 times to Rs 620 billion since 2014
GDP likely to grow at a healthy 7.5% in first quarter, say economists
Blessing in disguise for shrimp exporters as rupee slumps against US dollar
UP real estate authority forms Greater Noida bench to hear disputes
Corporate News
Bandhan Bank waiting for RBI guidelines on meeting promoter holding norms
Tata, Shapoorji looking to build strong portfolio of commercial properties
Amid rupee plunge, consumer durables makers mull pre-festive price hike
JSW tops Tata, Liberty with Rs 197 bn bid for Bhushan Power and Steel
Vivo invests Rs 2 billion to expand Greater Noida's manufacturing facility
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,681
694
867
25.0
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
20,345
648
720
11.1
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
215,144
334
416
24.4
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,196
408
589
44.4
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,875
329
475
44.6
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,389
510
851
67.0
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
277,973
9,202
10,820
17.6
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,848
343
591
72.2
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,911
857
981
14.5
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
31,127
141
218
54.2
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,456
292
410
40.4
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
562,554
2,076
2,350
13.2
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
1,17,854
948
1,050
10.8
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,944
936
1,230
31.0
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
12,867
1007
1,080
7.2
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
30,076
1,325
1,764
33.6
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
18,584
192
327
70.3
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
37,169
634
780
23.6
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
87,341
378
435
13.9
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
24,073
570
670
19.2
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
7,279
6,248
7,500
21.5
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
2,219
100
127
27.0
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,497
263
360
41.5
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,723
1,825
2,178
21.4
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,585
2,000
2,500
26.2
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,397
195
333
69.9
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
35,148
176
210
16.2
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Aug 17, 2018
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jul F
2.10
2.10
Aug 22, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug P
56.90
Aug 23, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jul
5.38
5.45
1:00 PMGermany PMI Services
Value
Aug P
54.10
7:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Aug A
(0.60)
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jul
631.00
650.00
Aug 24, 2018
11:30 AMGermany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
2.30
Aug 28, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Aug
127.40
127.00
Aug 29, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q S
4.10
4.00
Aug 30, 2018
1:25 PMGermany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Aug
(6.00)
Aug 31, 2018
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
51.20
Sep 03, 2018
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
54.00
Sep 07, 2018
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q F
0.40
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Aug
3.90
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Aug
157.00
Sep 08, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
12.20
Sep 10, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.10
7:00 AMChina
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Aug
2.10
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
7.0
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
4.8
4.8
6.1
6.3
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
z
6.0
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
54.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
52.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
46.0
1.0
44.0
42.0
-
40.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
77,078
0.6
(9.5)
13.5
Russia
Micex
4,248
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,435
4.1
6.6
16.2
China
Shanghai Composite
2,723
(3.3)
(14.2)
(17.6)
South Africa
Top 40
49,615
1.5
(3.1)
1.8
Mexico
Mexbol
48,557
0.2
6.0
(5.4)
Indonesia
LQ45
912
(1.6)
(1.7)
(6.9)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,786
3.4
(3.4)
0.6
Thailand
SET 50
1,129
2.9
(5.3)
11.1
USA
Dow Jones
25,162
0.4
1.8
14.2
UK
FTSE
7,498
(1.3)
(3.1)
1.5
Japan
Nikkei
22,204
(1.7)
(2.3)
11.0
Germany
DAX
12,163
(3.5)
(6.8)
0.1
France
CAC
5,305
(1.6)
(5.0)
3.9
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 16 August, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
Open
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
Aug 17, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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